A Tale of Two Polls

We are constantly hearing about poll results and what they mean. So often, the actual question is not discussed and the results are spun to get as much media attention as possible.

For instance, if I were to run a poll in January asking "do you find that your interest in ice cream has declined in the last 6 months" one can easily surmise that the majority of people would say yes. After all, who has as much interest in ice cream in January as opposed to July?

But, if we were to make a headline out of the results, then you would probably see something like "Canadian Support for Ice Cream Industry on the Decline"

Now, suppose the question had simply been, do you still like ice cream? We can easily assume the outcome would be quite different.

Where am I going with this? (I wouldn't blame you for asking) I recently came across two different polls about our involvement in Afghanistan.

The first was a Canadian Press-Decima Research which ran in the Globe and Mail under the headline "Support for Afghan intervention waning: poll". The question that was asked, from which they came to this conclusion, was whether the number of deaths in Afghanistan was acceptable. Say what?

Who is going to say yes to that question (surprisingly 25% actually did) as no death is acceptable. Many who read my writings know that I am an ardent supporter of our troops, and their mission in Afghanistan, but no death should ever be acceptable. (I will refrain from commenting on how many soldiers died due to ancient equipment while the Liberals were in power, oops, too late) If we found their deaths acceptable then why do we bother to even give them guns to defend themselves?

On the flip side, I also came across a poll run by the Dundas Star News. Their question was simply "Do you support Canada's role in Afghanistan beyond 2009?" The results are quite a bit different. As I type this, 89% say yes.

Of course, the Dundas Star News poll is unofficial and could be swayed by multiple votes by the same people but we also have to look at the way the major pollsters get their results as well (something that is usually glossed over)

First off, the survey sample is 1,000 people. I often question how 1,000 people can stand for the opinion of 30+ million but I am not a statistician. What I question are the people who are giving the answer. The majority of these types of polls are telephone surveys. Now, think about it, how many people actually;
A. are home when they call
B. given the preponderance of call display, actually answer, and
C. if they do answer, have the time to go through the survey which consists of at least 5 mins of questions just to ensure you are eligible to answer the questions (for the few times I accidentally answered the phone I told them my wife works for a marketing company because that instantly disqualifies you)

So basic demographics, and psychology, tells you immediately that they are not getting a true sampling of Canadians. They are missing most of the people who work routine hours and have kids in soccer, dance, hockey, etc and anyone who actually has a life. What they do get are a lot of people who have an axe to grind because they love to tell people what they think.

There is also the question of cell phones. More and more people are forsaking landlines and going to strictly cell phones. This is increasingly true in the major urban centres. Due to the cost involved, pollsters rarely do cell phone surveys and they would most likely get very belligerent answers. (I know I would be ticked having some polling company costing me money on my cell)

So, the next time you read the results of a poll, ask yourself, what kind of person actually answered these questions, and take the results with a very large grain of salt.

Genuflecting At The Altar Of Kyoto

In the beginning, there was the earth and it was good. It had green forests, sparkling water and blue skies. The air was clean and the land teemed with creatures big and small.

But then, man learned to harness the power of fire, to make alloys and modify his environment. He cut down the trees, dug up the earth and burned coal. (Can you hear the soundtrack?) He laid the land barren and the blue skies turned dark from the smoke of the burning rainforest and factories burning coal. Prophets, also called environmentalists, decried the destruction and went to the ends of the earth spreading their message. A time would come, they said, when man would be struck down for his destruction of the earth. They would be visited by plagues such as asthma, smog, droughts and the end of the earth. We must save the rainforest, they preached, for they clean the air we breathe and make rain. Other prophets rent their clothing over the pollution created by the digging of the earth for greed. Standing at the pulpit of public opinion, they spoke to all who would listen about the destruction of man brought on by his own avarice.

But God saw what was happening and sent a saviour whose name is Kyoto. This saviour started to spread the word called global warming. Many laughed and called him a false prophet but his apostles continued to spread the word. Slowly, the earlier prophets began to see the light and gave up their false gods of saving the rainforest and riding bicycles as they prostrated themselves at the feet of Kyoto, who was pleased. But, he still had a problem. For although Kyoto had converted the prophets, he still had to get the word to the people. Then one day, out of the wilderness, came a new apostle, a man of renown, who had once worshipped the god of power but who, after seeing a vision of hanging chads, had given up all to follow Kyoto.

The apostle Al Gore strode forth among the people and, putting forth his PowerPoint for all to see, they were in awe of his wisdom. He spoke the message of global warming, now known as climate change, as the savages who had previously believed in the plague of pollution, willingly bowed down to the one true god, Kyoto.

And it was good.

The apostles of Kyoto strode forth into the world and brought new converts to their cause. There was the apostle Jack, who put forth the message, with his concubine Olivia, from a bicycle. And the apostle David, who renounced the false gods he had worshipped known as pollution, smog and wilderness destruction, and embarked on a campaign to convert the rulers of the northern tribe known as Canada. As they went forth, they performed miracles for as the message of Kyoto was accepted, smog disappeared, the rainforest was resurrected and all wildlife was restored. No more would the world suffer from such plagues as animals roaming the Arctic, as the Mastodons had done thousands of years ago. The missionaries told how humankind would be saved from the natural effects of the earth’s heating and cooling, as the god Kyoto had decreed the last thirty years would be called Normal. All other temperatures were an aberration and must be driven from the face of the earth.

False prophets who dared to challenge the one true god were smote with the mighty PowerPoint. Clad in their pagan trappings of old-fashioned research, the shamans of the false gods - such as climate scientist Roger Pielke Sr. of the University of Colorado in Boulder - were shunned by the believers. His writings were struck from the media. His heretical teachings that “there are several climate forcings, in addition to the burning of fossil fuels, that are the main drivers behind global warming” were only spoken in whispers as they gathered in fear of the true god.

The ancient texts of the pagan priests were read with amusement. How naïve, the people thought. Pity those who believe such things as University of East Anglia’s study that showed during the years 1998-2005, the global average temperature did not increase. How could the savages cling to the belief that a period of similar warming occurred between 1918 and 1940, well prior to the greatest phase of world industrialisation and the cooling that occurred between 1940 and 1965? How could these people still worship the idols of false science that said the Arctic Ocean was 74 degrees Fahrenheit 55 million years ago or that there have been over 600 rapid increases and decreases in temperature in the last million years? The heathens even believed in astrology, for who, other than savages, would put any faith in the science that showed both the moon and Mars had also warmed during the same period.

So, as the unbelievers huddled in their basement temples at universities and research institutes the world over, the mighty Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gave the people a new bible and sent forth its priests to interpret it for the uneducated masses. Wielding it as a sword, they struck down the heretics who preached against the true god and shunned them as radicals. They proclaimed the righteousness of their preaching, for they had reviewed their own work and pronounced it as right.

And so, as they went forth, the people breathed a sigh of relief, for all was good. All pollution except CO₂ had been banished from the world and man was in control of the climate. Decrees such as the Clean Air Act, which would ban smog-creating emissions, need not exist, declared the prophets. We need only repent and ban greenhouse gas and the world would never warm, or cool, again.

And it was good.

The Fabric of Canada

In honour of Remembrance Day, I decided to repost this.

In an age of almost infinite information at our fingertips, you would think ignorance would be virtually eliminated. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Perhaps an over-saturation is the problem. Print publications, 24-hour news and the internet allow almost everyone a soap box to promote their message and a forum for people of all political stripes. With all this muddying of the waters, it is not surprising that the truth is often lost in the shuffle.

Nowhere is this more apparent than in the discussion of the Canadian Armed Forces’ involvement in Afghanistan.

First the basics.

Canadian troops are not in Iraq!

To some this might seem self-evident but, unfortunately, experience has shown otherwise. For instance, during a recent radio discussion on what would attract young Muslims to extremist ideology, two different people stated Canadian involvement in Iraq. More worrying is these people were both students at the University of Toronto. This has also been echoed in numerous blogs.

Another point that should be self-evident, but does not appear to be, is we are Canadian not American!

So much of the online debate centres on viewing our troops as if they were from the US. The very people who fume about Canada being Americanized, and take offence at being compared to an American, do exactly that to the Canadian Armed Forces.

Is it ignorance of our Armed Forces? The effects of watching too many “war” movies? Or is it that in the rush to condemn anything Bush, they push aside everything in the quest for their ideology?

It may be a combination of them all or none.

The Canadian Armed Forces are a reflection of Canada as a whole. The men and women of the Armed Forces are your neighbours, schoolmates and relatives. They were not born in a vacuum or created by some lab bent on creating the ultimate soldier. They are not Rambo, John Wayne or Clint Eastwood.

Our soldiers are Canadians who have grown up with the same experiences as you and I. They come from all walks of life and every region in the country, from Toktoyaktuk to Windsor, St. John’s to Victoria.

Our soldiers are highly educated. Almost every officer has a university degree and not necessarily a military-oriented one. It could be a degree in History, Psychology or Arts. Captain Nicola Goddard, who died in a Taliban ambush on 17 May 06, had a degree in English and was a member of an artillery unit.

Contrary to what you see in movies, our troops are not brainwashed or sheep. The men and women of the Canadian Armed Forces are allowed to voice their opinion, debate politics and the validity of a mission. Over a beer in the mess, or having coffee in the canteen, discussions can be heard on many subjects. Their brains are not removed at the recruiter’s nor are their ethics. They are expected to react instantaneously in combat and follow the orders they are given but are also expected to uphold the principles and honour of Canada. They are the ambassadors of Canada and are expected to represent the fabric of Canada even when dealing with people who are trying to kill them.

They are Canadians with the same hopes and dreams as any other Canadian. These do not change just because they put on a uniform.

The biggest difference is the men and women of the Canadian Armed Forces are willing to make sacrifices in pursuit of those hopes and dreams.

Our troops give up much to defend and protect, not just Canadians but others who are incapable of defending themselves. They live a life that most could not tolerate let alone do so willingly.

The movie image of the soldier waving gleefully while marching off to glory is just that - a movie image. It bears as much reality as that of King Kong climbing the Empire State Building.

There is no glory in deployed operations and no glee in leaving on them. Soldiers, more often than not, miss their child’s first steps, first words, first day at school and graduations. They live for months on end in dirt, dust, heat or cold. A shower once a week is a luxury and even a hot cup of coffee is not guaranteed. Hard physical labour is the order of the day, as are long hours and little sleep. They shave and bathe with cold water, both summer and winter. If it is quiet, they may get the opportunity to actually heat up their rations and a fresh egg is like filet mignon.

The majority of their time is spent fighting boredom. Standing guard duty for hours at a time in the middle of the night is not exactly exciting. Neither is the constant drudge of endless patrols in the middle of nowhere carrying 50 lbs of equipment. The typical day of a soldier is one of wearying routine coupled with sore muscles and bumps and bruises from being bounced around in an armoured vehicle. Through all this, their mind must remain sharp for that instance when danger does rear its head.

But they “soldier” on.

Why? Not because they are dupes, sheep or warmongers. They know that they are not in Afghanistan to fight a war for oil or as part of any American war of aggression.

The Canadian Armed Forces are in Afghanistan to try to bring stability and peace to the world and help a people in need.

From the moment the Taliban refused to hand over Osama Bin Laden after the American embassy bombings in 1998, it was realized something needed to be done. As supporters of terrorism, the Taliban was rapidly becoming a threat to world peace as well as a brutal, repressive government. Afghanistan was the training ground for the insurgents that were raising tensions between Pakistan and India, two countries with nuclear weapons. Al-Qaeda, and numerous other terrorist groups, freely operated in Afghanistan. Plans for going after Bin Laden were already in the works when the attacks of September 11^th, 2001 occurred. After the Taliban refused a final demand from the United Nations to hand over Bin Laden, it was realized the world could no longer afford to sit idly by.

This time was different though, this time the world finally got it - you cannot negotiate peace with people who don’t want peace. Fanatics, such as Bin Laden, want only to impose their form of order on the world. Like Adolph Hitler, nothing would appease, and they would not stop until democracy was destroyed. They wanted nothing short of Taliban-style rule worldwide.

And our soldiers are pragmatists. They realize that in order to allow peace to thrive, those bent on destruction must be subdued. They realize people who believe it is appropriate to fire rockets at children or bomb schoolrooms cannot be rationalized with. They know hospitals, schools and wells cannot be built while there is a constant threat of attack. And, most of all, they realize it will be dangerous.

So, day after day, they go out into the dust and heat, rain and cold, day and night, to seek out a threat to a suffering people. They don’t do it for fun but in the belief that they can help to bring a better life to the average Afghani.

As the grandfather of the little Afghani boy with cancer, who the Canadians attempted to help, stated “Canada is the first country to come to Afghanistan with pure intentions.”